Finance

Know what your app could earn.

See what stops people paying, what each fix is worth and what your first year could make, with every source named.

Try it on our sample app

The Finance department for Acme Notes, our sample app: “Year one could make $1k to $4.6k in the middle half of the runs.” Below it, 7 dead ends on the path to money, the first one open beside them.

Finance’s answer for Acme Notes, our sample app, from one free run: five questions, in the order it answers them.

Can people pay?

Yes, but the path has dead ends.

On the 5 pages the check drove, every page that shows a price has a way to pay or sign up beside it.

Front page/
- There is no way to contact you from the front pageNothing on the front door reaches a human: no contact, support, help or FAQ link anywhere on the page.
Pricing/pricing
Sign in/login
- There is no way back in for someone who forgot their passwordThis page signs people in with an email and a password, and nothing on it recovers an account: no reset route, and no forgot-password link anywhere on the page.
A sale
Payment

IT found three more on this path: “A form cannot be submitted at all: its required ‘company’ field is hidden” on the front page and the pricing page, and “The main button does nothing when pressed” on the front page.

What could year one make?

$1k to $4.6k.

Roughly $1k to $4.6k over year one (simulated: the middle half of 10,000 runs, from the assumptions below, not from sales).

Middle half of the runsNine in tenMiddle run

By month 12: $2,233, and half the runs land between $1,045 and $4,595.

169 million peoplecould use it: adults with internet access at home, in the labour market, in the United States. From the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample.

10,000 runsof the year on the sample app’s funnel. The answer is where the middle half of them landed, not a promise about any one.

Which guess matters most?

How many people you can put in front of it in a year.

From one end of its range to the other, the simulated year moves from $1,238 to $4,951. It is the Lab’s starting range, not anything measured about your business.

How many people find youThe year moves from $1,238 to $4,951
What “A secret key is visible in your website’s code” on the sign-in page costs youThe year moves from $1,340 to $4,021
What “A secret key is visible in your website’s code” on the front page costs youThe year moves from $1,328 to $3,984

Each bar is the average year with that one guess pinned at the low end of its range, then the high, and everything else left as drawn.

How to find outCount the visitors one channel really sends you: a week of one ad, one post or one newsletter mention, measured in your analytics.

What is each fix worth?

$6.2k to $14k for the first one.

How much your first year grows when each one is fixed. A fix can be worth more than the year above, because that year still has all three problems in it.

1A secret key is visible in your website’s code, on the pricing page$6.2k to $14k
2A secret key is visible in your website’s code, on the sign-in page$2.7k to $7.2k
3A secret key is visible in your website’s code, on the front page$1.2k to $4k

What does it stand on?

16 guesses and 1 measurement.

The forecast stands on 16 guesses (13 the Lab’s starting ranges, 3 you set), 1 measured input and 0 from the simulated panel. Each guess is a dial in the Lab, and moving a dial changes the forecast.

Assumption	Value	Where it comes from
People who could use it (aged 18 to 120, with internet access at home, in the labour market)	169,123,156	MeasuredU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample
Visitors in the first year	25,000 to 100,000	The Lab’s starting rangeCapped at 100,000 visitors until a channel budget is set.
Would try it	8% to 12%	Set in the LabThe sample app’s own funnel, set for this example
Finish signing up	50% to 65%	Set in the LabThe sample app’s own funnel, set for this example
Would pay at $8	12% to 20%	Set in the LabThe sample app’s own funnel, set for this example
Monthly churn of paying customers	3% to 8%	The Lab’s starting rangeThe lab’s default range; published for comparison: 3.22% median churn for SaaS on the Recurly network
Lost at try to “A secret key is visible in your website’s code”	25% to 75%	The Lab’s starting range

Where the numbers can come from: World Bank World Development Indicators, US Census American Community Survey, BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, CDC BRFSS, Eurostat, Statistics Canada, SEC financial statement data sets, ChartMogul SaaS conversion benchmarks, Recurly churn rate benchmarks.

Limits

It checks that the path to payment exists and works. It has no opinion on whether your price is right.
Every dollar figure is a range simulated from stated assumptions, each with its source and date.
No dataset can say whether a given person will buy your product, and category spending data isn’t included yet.

The science behind the forecast

Pricing

Free on every plan, unlimited

A check of your path to payment, and the Lab, which sizes your market and forecasts your first year.

Uses validations

Simulated buyers who try to pay, and a strategy review.

See pricing

Other departments

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